Tight Supply Drives Surge in High-End AHTS Dayrates

Focusing on larger units above 200t BP, the global fleet consists of less than 10% of the total fleet with roughly 150 units in this category. Roughly one third of these units are in South America, particularly Brazil, while close to 20% are stationed in the North Sea.

Age-wise, more than 60% of this fleet is 15 years or older, with no vessels in this category in the current orderbook. However, there is a tender in Brazil for building AHTS tonnage with WROV against a long-term contract. As a result of the reduction in the supply side seen in recent years, and an increasing demand in several key regions, upward pressure on dayrates has now been evident in the North Sea spot market, as well as long-term contracts in Brazil and Australia.

Aging Fleet and Limited Newbuild Activity Tighten Supply

In contrast to most other OSV-segments such as Subsea, PSV, and C/SOVs, where there has been a significant uptick in newbuilding activity since 2022, the current AHTS market conditions does not justify new high-end AHTS vessels, mostly due to the price of the high specification equipment.

In fact, for this segment in particular, the challenge on the choice of equipment is compounded by the fact that many high-end AHTS are effectively “hybrid” designs. While they can be deployed across both oil & gas and offshore wind markets, the required equipment configuration differs materially between the two segments. This creates additional uncertainty for Owners at the ordering stage, both in terms of upfront capital expenditure and future utilization, further undermining the inherent commercial risks for new high-end AHTS newbuilds.

Furthermore, following the OSV downturn, the market remained weak for several years, driven by a large overhang of tonnage ordered in the latter part of the last upcycle, combined with efficiency gains from O&G charterers. At the same time, escalating equipment and building costs, coupled with fewer long-term contracts, have reduced building activity drastically.

In the period from 2016 to 2021, above 20 vessels surpassing 200t BP were either scrapped, retired or converted for government use, primarily vessels built in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In parallel, several high-end tonnage have been sold to Chinese operators, where the vessels have predominantly been deployed domestically in China within O&G and the offshore wind segment.

Brazil, Subsea Work and Offshore Wind Drive Demand Growth

Another important demand driver for the overall high-end AHTS market has been the growing rig and FPSO activity in South America, particularly Brazil, which has absorbed a large amount of North Sea tonnage on healthy long-term contracts. Last year alone, there were six high-end AHTS vessels fixed on such long-term contracts in Brazil, which has thus reduced the supply side in the North Sea. Furthermore, regions such as Australia and the Canadian East Coast have continued to absorb North Sea tonnage.

Moreover, we are starting to see more high-end AHTS vessels deployed with crane and WROV capacity, achieving significant contracts with high dayrate coupled with longer contract durations than typically achieved in the spot market. This has effectively reduced available supply for the remaining vessels in the North Sea and also creates an incentive for shipowners to invest in additional equipment such as the aforementioned. For instance, Viking Supply ordered four 100t AHC subsea cranes for installation across its fleet, which is planned to be installed in 2026.

Beyond traditional work scopes such as rig moves, pre-lay, heading control, and ROV operations, demand from subsea EPC contractors has continued to strengthen materially. Several of the contractors such as TechnipFMC, Saipem, and Subsea 7 have increasingly chartered high-end AHTS vessels for EPCI campaigns.

With a growing subsea project pipeline, this trend is expected to be a material part of the demand driver moving forward. Additional workscopes that have booked up AHTS tonnage in the last summer seasons have been floating offshore wind, trenching for offshore wind and bundle towing.

In sum, the increasing demand shift to subsea contractors, coupled with reduced supply and regional vessel flow out of the North Sea, have driven a notable improvement in North Sea dayrates. In the UKCS, only two months in 2024 recorded average spot rates above GBP 60,000. In 2025, this increased to four months, three of which occurred in Q4 after several AHTS vessels had left the North Sea for healthy long-term contracts in Brazil.

Since then, the spot market has remained volatile, but extremely strong compared to historical levels. In January, the average rate in the UK was at GBP 100,000, increasing to GBP 108,000 in February. Since then, the average dayrate has stabilized at roughly GBP 75,000.

The same trend is clearly evident at the NCS, where the year 2024 only saw two months with an average dayrate above NOK 800,000. In 2025, the number of months above this threshold rose to six months. So far in 2026, every month has averaged above NOK 1,000,000. In fact, the past seven months have all exceeded this dayrate level. Furthermore, we are seeing seasonal project fixtures for the largest units currently trading above NOK 1,000,000.

Despite record-high dayrates however, utilization levels are still lagging to a degree as most Owners prioritize price over utilization. In fact, several shipowners seem to intentionally avoid some of the requirements to capture the upside premium of being the only Owner with available tonnage to drive the dayrate above NOK 3,000,000.

In 2025, the average utilization level in the North Sea was around 60%. However, even with a reduced supply side, the utilization level softened in Q1 down to only 53%, highly impacted by harsh weather in February and March.

While dayrate momentum is clear, the current market fundamentals still do not support the current newbuild prices. Consequently, we believe that it is likely that the supply side will be squeezed even more going forward. High maintenance CAPEX, rising OPEX and low utilization for some of the ageing tonnage could see a few vessels retired, placed in cold stacked or sold out of the commercial market, which would benefit the active fleet.

And while we expect the market to push the previous commercial age limitations, we are starting to see a growing number of breakdowns and a higher number of maintenance days for the older units, which is effectively reducing the supply. Also, due to the reduced newbuilding activity in the last ten years, the lead time for spare parts and equipment has risen significantly, which could increase the time of maintenance even more.

On the demand side, charter efficiency gains persist, with fewer vessel days per campaign and an increasing number of floating rigs drilling on DP. However, seasonal demand for anchoring up floating rigs has so far remained stable, while we see an increasing number of rigs drilling on DP during the summer months during benign weather.

FPSO Activity and Asset Moves Point to Strong Long-Term Demand

Looking ahead, the demand for high-end tonnage will be dependent on rig activity, demand from EPC contractors, Offshore Wind and FPSO activity. FPSO activity has been one of the key drivers for Brazil absorbing tonnage. After a stable number of new FPSO awards between 2021 and 2023, the activity level was reduced in 2024 and 2025, with only five awards last year.

As of April 2026, four FPSOs have already been awarded, and eight more could be awarded during the year. With the current pipeline of projects, 26 FPSOs could be awarded by 2028, securing demand for AHTS vessels in the long run.

As dayrate pressure in the North Sea has increased amid persistently limited supply, S&P activity picked up over recent months. Recent transactions include DOF’s acquisition of Aurora Salfjord and Sandefjord, along side the sale of Skandi Laser by the same owner, as well as Viking Supply’s purchase of Maerks Maker. In total, six vessels with bollard pull above 180t have changed hands in recent months. With no new vessels above 200t BP on order, an aging high-end fleet, and increasing demand, the market fundamentals are set to strengthen even more in the coming years.