Modelling Climate Solutions

Our pages often focus on the technology below the surface. The sensors, cameras, microphones, vehicles and sonars that help us to see, explore and understand the ocean. However, once that data comes onshore, it tells a larger story, reflecting the past, present and sometimes near future of global ocean health and climate.

Models and simulators play an important role in applying and translating data. Once processed, analyzed and compiled, this information can portray near-future climate events and associated outcomes, advising scientists and decision makers alike. They are interactive, encouraging users to explore solutions and impacts in a way that supports curiosity and broadens discussion.

The En-ROADS Climate Solution Simulator, produced and maintained by Climate Interactive, is just that. Where complex models are required to identify and compare climate trade-offs and solutions, the simulator presents the data in an accessible, easy manner and with instant results.

Collaborative Solutions

Climate models and simulators provide a platform to compare and assess numerous factors, including global temperature, energy consumption and GDP. They also offer a space to compare solutions, including marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), explained David Koweek, chief scientist at Ocean Visions. A little over a year ago, they approached Climate Interactive about including mCDR in the simulator's suite of climate solutions. “There's been incredible advances in the research and development of mCDR, and it’s important that they make it onto the same level footing as other potential options so that you can think about a portfolio of climate solutions and make apples-to-apples comparisons.”

The partnership has been fruitful, leading to the release of a new ocean alkalinity enhancement module for the En-ROADS Climate Solution Simulator, an important pathway for mCDR. “One of the motivations for us about reaching out to Climate Interactive was seeing the incredible reach that they have amongst global climate solutionists and decision makers,” said Koweek.

“En-ROADS Climate Solution Simulator is a product of Climate Interactive. They host it, they maintain it, they build it, they're responsible for all of it,” he added. “Ocean Visions has expertise in ocean climate technologies, and we have cultivated a lot of work over the last few years to increase global fluency and understanding of these solutions. What we brought was that understanding about how people think about ocean climate technologies, a network of experts to increase understanding and advance the science around these technologies, and a real understanding of how we might think about representing these technologies within the En-ROADS simulator.”

The En-ROADS Climate Solution Simulator

The simulator is a simplified version of an integrated assessment tool, which links economic decisions with climate outcomes. However, Kopek explained, scientists have recognized the need to encompass both pathways of climate solutions—the traditional discussion of reducing emissions by altering energy systems and electrification, and the newer mindset of carbon-removal technologies. “We’ve put so much greenhouse gas pollution into our atmosphere that we now must develop technologies to remove that legacy carbon pollution to limit warming. These two have to work together. They're complements. They're not substitutes for one another and they don't compete against one another.”

The simulator allows users to understand the trade-offs across the entire suite of possible decisions for both the global economy and climate. It also features indicators that track specific data, like how changes in emissions and carbon removal might impact ocean acidification, among others.

The simulator, free and openly available on the Climate Interactive website, also aims to be accessible to a range of users, regardless of experience with scientific data or complex models. For those who want to dive deeper, technical literature is available that justifies the decisions and assumptions within the tool.

Global Reach

The stories told by climate simulations and models are not only important for scientists or the curious global citizen; they also carry significant weight with governments and other decision makers. By considering different futures, climate impacts and multi-faceted solutions, policymakers can make informed choices regarding climate policies. More specifically, the En-ROADS Climate Solution Simulator demonstrates the two-pronged solution in a visible manner.

“If you try to increase or maximize carbon removal without changing the emissions profile, you don't get much change or benefit for the climate. There's not much cooling provided. Simultaneously, if you try to ramp up emissions reduction but leave carbon removal alone, you’re also not going to hit temperature targets,” explained Koweek. “But if you start to think about ways that you can couple emissions reduction with carbon removal, then you see these really powerful opportunities to start to bend the curve on global temperature.”

As the ocean alkalinity module is still in the early days of rollout, Koweek looks forward to tracking its impact and making sure it reaches the right people. And, taking inspiration from the simulator, Ocean Visions is working internally to develop a mCDR database, to further increase global fluency with ocean climate solutions in an open, accessible, visual and interactive way.

The knowledge sharing is far from finished and the ocean may be the most powerful narrator yet. “This is a really interesting example of how the oceans are not just a victim in the story, but have the potential to contribute to some of the biggest solutions that we need to stabilize the climate and regenerate ocean health.”